When you’ve watched and studied basketball for as long as I have, eventually you learn to get in touch with the rules of the game.

And I don’t mean like “if you take an extra step, that’s a travel” type of rules.

I’m talking about the Quantum Rules. Kinda like the laws that govern thermodynamics? Rules like “Low energy and bad body language = a letdown” or “When a shooter gets unreasonably hot at any given time, the shooter is allowed a minimum of one heat check” or the original quantum basketball rule, “Defense wins championships”.

These Quantum Rules govern the game. Every single basketball game that you’ve ever watched or ever will watch will include AT LEAST one Quantum Rule that will dictate the outcome of a game.

That’s why the 2023 Final Four game between San Diego State and Florida Atlantic just seemed to make no sense. This game broke the rules…

YOU CAN’T BREAK THE RULES?!?!

But here’s the thing. When it comes to March Madness, you can break the Quantum Rules – as long as you do it within the deeper Quantum Rules.

You see, if you break a bunch of rules in a game, but you mix these broken rules with a couple of very specific deeper rules that you’ve actually followed, you create a basketball phenomenon known as….

A Miracle.

Following me so far?  Let’s break down exactly how you use basketball’s Quantum Rules to create A Miracle.

Recipe for A Miracle

Okay so if you want to produce A Miracle, you have to begin with the very first and most basic of all miracle rules: “Many things have to go wrong, then something has to go right”.

Remember, if everything goes right, then you don’t get A Miracle. Look at UConn in the second game of the Final Four who won 72-59. If everything goes right for you, then you just win in an uninteresting blowout. The inverse is also true. If everyone goes wrong, you just lose in an uninteresting blowout.

The majority of games follow the give and take rule (i.e. a few things go wrong, a few things go right, both teams go back and forth, with one team eventually pulling away and winning). These games are fine and sometimes even great. But they don’t include A Miracle.

To get our miracle reaction, we need several things going wrong and only a few things going right with one secret ingredient (we’ll get to that).

So, what went wrong for San Diego State on Saturday night?

Here’s the list:

  • SDSU allowed FAU to score more points against their vaunted defense than any other team in the tournament.
  • SDSU shot a worse Field Goal % for the game.
  • SDSU did NOT win the 3pt margin (both teams made 9 3pt shots for the game).
  • SDSU did NOT win the foul margin (both teams committed 17 fouls for the game).
  • SDSU shot an abysmal 59% from the free throw line including going 4-12 during the crucial, final seven-minute stretch of the game (FAU was 76% at the line).
  • SDSU was down by 14 points mid-way through the second half.
  • SDSU only had 2 guys who could score with any type of consistency all night (Bradley in the first half, LeDee in the second).
  • The “Cinderella Effect” was working against SDSU (FAU had a chance to be the lowest seed to EVER win the NCAA tournament).
  • SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher ditched conventional wisdom and held on to a timeout in the closing seconds with his best scorer on the bench (Had things gone wrong, this is all you would have seen on ESPN for the next 2 days).

I’m not gonna lie, around the 5 or 6 minute mark of the game, when SDSU had some extremely tough misses at the free-throw line, I was beginning to write them off. They had broken too many rules, there was no way they should have a shot at winning the game. When FAU’s Alijah Martin delivered a smooth reverse layup with 57 seconds remaining, that would have been the proverbial nail in the coffin on a normal night.

But this wasn’t a normal night.

Miracle Ingredients List

Despite all of those things going wrong for the Aztecs, SDSU did two things right that put them in position for A Miracle.

First, they remained mentally tough.

When FAU built a 14-point lead shooting over 50% including 6 three’s, SDSU did not panic. They didn’t start having Bradley chuck ill-advised shots, they didn’t push their pace faster than they were comfortable with, they just stayed with the program. They believed in themselves, they believed in their coach and system, and they took things one possession at a time.

This mental toughness shined brightest when SDSU endured a stretch going 4-12 from the free throw line – an event that would have crushed almost anyone else (Quantum Basketball Rule #2: “Make your free throws”). But because they had no panic, they grabbed 8 offensive rebounds in that same stretch to create more possessions and more opportunities, hoping for a chance at A Miracle.

So now that the Aztecs established mental toughness, they know it’s time to add the second ingredient: physical, disciplined defense.

This type of defense had been the identity of SDSU all season, but on this night, FAU was ripping through it. However, because the Aztecs remained mentally tough and never wavered, they were able to wait out the storm and crank up the defense at the opportune time.

In the first half, FAU shot 54% to only 3 turnovers. In the second half, the Aztec defense forced FAU into 33% shooting and 7 turnovers.

This defense combined with mental toughness meant that SDSU could chip away at the 14-point deficit slowly, methodically while putting all the pressure on FAU to make the correct plays to close out the game.

As time ticked away, the 14-point lead shrank possession-by-possession, the missed free throws that should have been game enders turned into offensive rebounds and second chance points, the pressure built higher and higher and higher, all the while, SDSU stoically waiting for FAU to make one critical mistake.

And then the secret ingredient came into play.

Cosmic justice.

When you’re attempting to put together A Miracle in a high stakes basketball situation, storylines, narrative, and destiny all come into play.

You may scoff, but if you’ve watched basketball for any length of time, you know it’s true.

Enter the 2019-20 San Diego State Aztecs basketball team. Here we have a team that had one of the best seasons in program history. They finished the season with a 30-2 record. They were ranked #3 in Offensive Rating and #10 in Defensive Rating. They would have been a #1 seed and an odds-on favorite in the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

And then the rug was ripped out from under them as Covid raged and the Tournament was suddenly canceled. After a dream season and a chance to finally compete for a championship for a program who had never made it past the Sweet Sixteen, everything came crashing down in ways that nobody could have predicted. Canceling the Tournament meant that for some of those kids who had worked their entire lives for that moment, would now never get to experience it. All the effort to put themselves in position for a rare championship run, laid to waste by a freak pandemic from the universe.

So the 2023 Aztecs stayed the course. They never wavered, they fought and scrapped. They played their own game. They knew that if they stayed the course then maybe, just MAYBE, the universe would come through and dish out some cosmic justice for the program, for the fans who were robbed of experiencing their team make a tourney run, and for the players of 2020 who would never get to experience it firsthand.

Then FAU finally made a mistake.

Up by one with a chance to put the game away, FAU’s Johnell Davis took a contested shot a tad too early in the shot clock and missed. This is where the Cosmic Justice came into play. The miss at that point in the shot clock gave SDSU 4 whole extra seconds to get the rebound, get up the court and get the best shot possible. Lamont Butler made it to his spot and got the shot off just as time ran out.

A Miracle unfolds.

Pandemonium reigns.

San Diego fans, enjoy this one. No matter what happens in Monday night’s championship game, don’t take that Final Four game for granted. A True Miracle is the rarest of all sports moments. It requires the EXACT ingredients in the EXACT circumstances at the EXACT right time. A fan of a program may never get another one in their lifetime. If just one of those offensive rebounds didn’t happen, if just one of those defensive possessions was a tiny bit lackadaisical, maybe even if the 2020 Tournament was never canceled… A Miracle doesn’t come to fruition.

This is some deep basketball science here, but that’s why we love the game.

Now for SDSU, the job isn’t finished. The Aztecs somehow have to put all that emotion behind them and play one more game just 48 hours later. They will face a UConn Huskies team that is as hot as any team has ever been in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has won every tourney game this year by an average of 20.6 points per game. That’s good for 3rd all-time in tournament margin of victory.

Can San Diego State refocus?  Can they channel that mental toughness and elite defense one more time to slay a giant? Can they officially complete the quest that the 2020 Aztecs started?

It may take A Miracle.