The NFL Conference Championships are here.  In the NFC, two legends look to add to their legacies.  In the AFC, a tortured franchise looks to play spoiler to an emerging dynasty.  Who will advance and play for the Super Bowl?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

Don’t take matchups like Tom Brady vs Aaron Rodgers for granted. 

Brady will always be associated with Peyton Manning as his main rival – they matched up 17 times including 4 AFC Championship games.  But since Manning’s retirement in 2015, Brady has been without that fixed rivalry and has faced a rotating and diverse cast of opposing QBs on route to winning three more Super Bowls.  This year, with Brady jumping over to the NFC, we finally got to see Brady matchup with Drew Brees three times and now we are set for our second matchup of Brady/Rodgers for the season. 

The Brady/Brees matchup lost a little bit of luster with Father Time finally catching up to Drew Brees in a Divisional Round loss to the Bucs last week.  Brees’ inability to throw the ball downfield was on full display and with reports that Brees intends to retire in the offseason, it was an emotional sendoff for one of the most statistically accomplished quarterbacks of all time. 

Aaron Rodgers, however, is playing some of the best football of his career.  Rodgers is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the history of football (I would have said THE most talented until Patrick Mahomes arrived) but he was held back by a coach in Mike McCarthy who lacked creativity and failed to put Rodgers in a situation to compete for multiple championships.  It’s been 10 years (?!?) since Rodgers made his one and only Super Bowl appearance in a 31-25 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Getting back to the Big Game – just appearing in a second Super Bowl, much less winning one – is imperative for Rodgers’ ultimate legacy.

The Packers current Head Coach, Matt LaFleur, has freed Aaron Rodgers from his McCarthy prison and has placed Rodgers firmly back in the MVP conversation (an award he should win this year).  Rodgers barely missed the 50 Passing Touchdowns Club this season with 48 (nearly doubled from last year’s 26 TDs) and only threw 5 interceptions which is truly astounding. His QBR has jumped from 95.4 in 2019 to 121.5 this year which is the second best QBR of all time to… himself (122.5 rating in 2011). 

For the most part, Aaron Rodgers’ career production speaks for itself and his legacy is fairly set except for that one pesky thing – ONE Super Bowl Appearance.  A second Super Bowl run would leave Rodgers with nothing left to prove and would cement his place as a Top 5 All Time QB at minimum.  This is his best chance.  The Packers are a better team than the Bucs and are playing their best football RIGHT NOW.  If Green Bay can’t get it done tomorrow, then, fair or not, it will go towards the negative legacy of Rodgers – the most talented quarterback of a generation with only one Super Bowl run to show for it.  Rodgers has much more to lose here than Brady. 

Speaking of which… Tom Brady’s legacy is set in stone.  The outcome of tomorrow doesn’t matter for him in the long run.  There are no standards left in the history of the NFL for Brady to conquer.  Brady has entered this rarified space of resetting the benchmark of greatness.  In my lifetime, only Tom Brady and Michael Jordan have entered this space in major sports.  What is this space, you ask?  It’s the point in which a player arrives where the only thing left to accomplish in their career is to widen the gap between themselves and the SECOND greatest athlete in a particular sport.  That’s all Brady is doing at this point.   

Tom Brady is not chasing anything anymore, he’s separating from everything.

Is Brady the most talented, smartest, or most skilled quarterback of all time?  Absolutely not.  Did Brady need Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots machine to get him where he is today?  Absolutely yes.  But none of that matters.  Here are the facts:  Tom Brady will play in his fourteenth conference championship game tomorrow, he has appeared in nine Super Bowls, and he has won six Super Bowls.  Tom Brady is the greatest winner in football history and that is unassailable.  A tenth Super Bowl appearance and a seventh win does nothing more than widen the gap.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

This one begins and ends with the status of Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes suffered a concussion in the third quarter of last week’s divisional round against the Cleveland Brown and the Chiefs had to survive a furious comeback attempt without their defining quarterback of the next generation.  As of Friday, Mahomes has been cleared to play and should be good to go.  Everything in this game will depend on how healthy Mahomes is in his head AND in his foot which was clearly hobbled last week as well. 

Even with Mahomes’ health in question, this matchup could still be in favor of KC.  When the Bills and Chiefs played back in Week 6, it was actually the Chiefs running attack that dominated the game.  Buffalo, in an attempt to not let Patrick Mahomes beat them, gave up the middle of the field to take away throws, and Chiefs coach Andy Reid responded by running the ball 46 times for a whopping 245 yards.  It’s the pick-your-poison affect with Kansas City.  Take away the passing game and you’ll be gouged by the run, take away the run and, well, just see what Patrick Mahomes will do to you.  Between Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Le’Veon Bell, and breakout rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who should be back from injury tomorrow) the Chiefs just have too many weapons spread all over the field and the ultimate weapon at quarterback to spread the wealth.

But again, this is why Mahomes health is so important.  If Mahomes is hobbled and can’t escape the pocket, or if he’s struggling to knock off the concussion rust and makes delayed decisions, I would expect Buffalo to try a reversed approach and attempt to pressure Mahomes and force him into mistakes.  The caveat, obviously, is that if you play with fire, you’re likely to get burnt.  If Mahomes is unaffected by pressure, the Bills will be asking for an explosive play or ten.  Buffalo’s margin for error is razor thin. 

For the Buffalo offense, quarterback Josh Allen had one of his worst games against Kansas City in Week 6.  As great of a breakout year that Allen has had, he’s still a young quarterback and Kansas City does a great job of disguising their zone defenses and causing confusion.  With that being said, check this stat out:  Against man-to-man defenses, Josh Allen has 25 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.  Against zone defenses, Josh Allen has 11 touchdowns to 8 interceptions.  Allen is a gunslinger.  It will be up to him to stay poised and take what the defense gives him.  If the Chiefs are able to goad Allen into making mistakes, Kansas City will take this games easily.  This game should be the ultimate test so far of Josh Allen’s discipline.