After months of wandering in the wilderness, it’s finally Football Time!
I don’t know about you, but this has felt like the longest offseason ever. I guess that’s what happens when you’re team is actually good. Offseason becomes double-long when you’re good and you leave a little on the table like the Vols did in 2022.
That just makes us all the more hungry for 2023.
Take a quick moment and think about where the Tennessee Football program was in 2020. Now think about what the Vols (with several of those same players) accomplished in 2022:
- Beat Pittsburg – the defending ACC Champion
- Beat Florida – a team that holds a real and true mental edge over Tennessee
- Blew out LSU – winners of the SEC West, blew them out on their home field mind you
- Beat Alabama – nothing else needs to be said here
- Orange Bowl appearance – first time since a guy named Peyton Manning was our quarterback
- Beat Clemson – one of only 2 true challengers to Alabama’s reign of terror over the last decade
That list of accomplishments in one season was unthinkable just a couple short years ago. Did Tennessee accomplish everything that they wanted in 2022?
Absolutely not.
Georgia remains THE roadblock to winning the East, and the South Carolina game was an unmitigated disaster that will haunt my nightmares for a good while.
But you know what? Baby steps. Be pleased with last season.
The 2022 results are not a fluke. Tennessee’s play on the field proved that this was the beginning of… something.
For the first time since the early 2000s, Tennessee is going to open the season as a legitimate National Title contender. We’re ready to get this party started. Next Saturday can’t come soon enough.
In the meantime, let’s dive into your definitive guide to the 2023 Tennessee Volunteers: things I expect to see, questions that need answering, predictions, and a hot take here or there.
1. Joe Milton’s Last Stand
Joe Milton, you’re up.
And this is it. I mean this is IT it. Milton is entering his sixth and final college football season but his first as the unquestioned starter – there are no more second chances and there is nowhere to hide.
To this point, Milton has been living off of one thing: Po-ten-tial.
I’ve been watching football for something like 25 years at this point and can count on one hand the quarterbacks who have had potential on the level of Joe Milton.
His size and athleticism? Elite.
That arm strength?? Get out of own.
The way his chiseled shoulders and dreads make him look like The Predator in a football uniform??? Uncanny.
But right now is the final chance for that pure potential to be realized in college football. If not now, never.
In his last five seasons, he’s struggled to harness the power in his bazooka arm. He’s lost his starting job twice. His overthrows (and over-heated throws), his occasionally questionable decision-making, and his tendency to hold the ball in the pocket a tad too long have kept him from maximizing his unreal potential.
Enter Josh Heupel and Hendon Hooker. Over the last two seasons, Milton has had the luxury of living somewhat in the background and learning excellence from these two. Mechanics and scheme from Heupel, leadership and execution from Hooker. Once he lost his starting gig for a second time in the 2021 season, instead of leaving (to his credit), Milton went back into the lab and has studied and worked. It’s showing. Based on multiple reports as well as the ole fashioned eye test in last season’s Orange Bowl, Milton has improved in every facet of the game. Mechanics, pocket poise, offensive command, accuracy, touch, decision-making, you name it, he’s improved it.
So now we come to it. One year to put it all together. It’s all up to Joe himself to reach his sky-high potential. If he does? He’ll be the best quarterback in college football. Period. Full stop. It’s really that simple.
If he does NOT? That’s where everything gets muddled. What if we get 80% of Milton’s true potential? Is that enough for another 11 win season? Is 80% of Joe Milton’s potential enough to keep the freshman phenom off his heels? I’m really not sure.
Tennessee has some clear doubters this year. The Vols are ranked behind multiple teams that they beat last year in some cases handily (looking at you LSU, Clemson). The popular picks are showing the Vols taking a small step back, perhaps winning only 9 games with sneaky losses to Mizzu, Kentucky, or A&M, their offense being worse than their #1 showing in 2022, and inconsistency rearing its head.
To me, all of these concerns are warranted because we just don’t know what version of Joe Milton will be showing up in 2023.
My prediction? I feel it in my bones that we get Joe Milton’s absolute best this year. In two seasons, Josh Heupel has showed us something: He gets the most out of his guys – not just at quarterback but all over the field. No coach that I’ve watched at Tennessee including Fulmer, has had the ability to get more out of less than Josh Heupel.
I believe Heupel will have Milton ready and that Milton is going to take college football by storm. Now it’s up to Milton himself to prove that he can take his gold-plated arm and actually do the thing. I don’t think I’ve ever wanted to see a QB succeed at Tennessee more than I want to see it for Joe Milton. He’s likeable. Everyone from his teammates to coaches to media members love and swear by Joe. And if he succeeds based on his own potential in Josh Heupel’s system? He could have one of the greatest individual seasons for a QB in college football history. It really is on the table. It’s up to Joe to eat.
Not much more needs to be said. Joe Milton will either be special, or he will be “meh” and leave us wishing for what could have been. And as Joe Milton goes, so will the 2023 Tennessee Volunteers football season. The whole thing is as simple as that.
The question now is how can the rest of team work towards helping Joe Milton reach for the stars?
2. Offensive Line Needs To Grow Up Fast
The number one way for the rest of the team to help maximize Joe Milton’s potential is for the O-Line to give him a clean pocket to work with. This is going to be VITAL in 2023.
Bazooka Joe is never going to be a pocket escape artist or a true running quarterback. It’s not his game, and while reports say that he has slimmed down in preparation for this season and seems a little more slippery than he has in the past, you’re never going to see Milton running the likes of Hendon Hooker or Josh Dobbs.
Midway through the 2014 season, Josh Dobbs took a bad O-Line and made them look awesome because of his legs. The 2023 Vols are not going to have that curtain to hide behind. Milton’s most valuable asset is his arm and it will be paramount for the O-Line to give him time to use it. The ability to flick the ball 80 yards does no good if there is no time to hang in the pocket for plays to develop.
This O-Line has a healthy mix of experience vs inexperience. Javontez Spraggins, Jeremiah Crawford, Gerald Mincey, and Cooper Mays all contributed in big moments last year. John Campbell Jr. is in his first year in Heupel’s system, but he has quite a bit of football experience from Miami and word on the street is that he’s taken the all-important Left Tackle position and ran with it.
Everyone else in the Line rotation is fairly young and fairly inexperienced. Here are some questions that we will be looking out for in the first few games of the season:
How significant is the Cooper Mays injury? If Coop can’t go against Virginia or Austin Peay, is Ollie Lane up to the challenge of calling out protections and establishing Heupel’s frantic pace? Because of the pace of play, the center position may be the most important on this Vols O-Line. If Cooper’s injury lingers into Florida week, Ollie Lane must take it on himself to grow up quickly.
How much will first round pick Darnell Wright be missed? The Right Tackle position is now up for grabs and Wright is leaving huge shoes to fill. With the run game being more important than ever this season, whoever takes the Right Tackle spot will be tasked with clearing the way. Gerald Mincey has high potential and is the hope for this spot, but there’s been some chatter that he’s been somewhat disappointing in fall camp this year. Mincey has a chance to make some money at the next level with a good season. Will be interesting to see if he is able to get out of his own way and make an impact. If not, this will be a position of concern. Is anyone else willing or able to take the job?
My belief is that Heupel’s pace of play works in our O-Line’s favor. Between high level play-calling, a pace that wears down defensive lines, and elite players at the skill positions, Tennessee’s line doesn’t have to be the glitziest line in college football to succeed. If we simply have consistently solid play and avoid the dreaded injury bug, this O-Line should be just fine to compete for the SEC East and beyond.
3. The Running Game Is More Important Than Ever
The second way that Tennessee can maximize Joe Milton’s potential is that the 2023 Vols running game must take the next step towards becoming elite.
Tennessee’s running back room will once again be production by committee. The Vols return their top three backs this year in Jabari Small, Jaylen Wright, and Dylan Sampson. These three backs combined for a total of 2,006 rushing yards in 2022 with Wright leading in yards, Small leading in carries, and Sampson leading in yards per carry. All three are talented, all three have specific skill sets that make them unique, and all three have clear areas where they can potentially improve in 2023.
Jabari Small has been the starter of the trio despite having arguably the lowest ceiling of the group. This is because Small does all the little things consistently well even outside of running the ball. Need an extra pass blocker? Small will pick up the blitz. Need an extra pass catcher? Small will run the route and make the catch (12 catches, 106 yds, 2 TD in 2022). Need to finish off a drive in the red zone? Small is excellent at finishing runs inside the five yard line (I’ve heard him nicknamed “The Touchdown Vulture”). He’s tough, he’s one of the hardest workers on the team, and he’s a leader by example. Whether he continues to start this year or not, he will continue to be the heart and soul of this group. If he can rip off a few more chunk plays on a more consistent basis and put his lingering shoulder injury issues behind him, he could very well have another 700-800 yard season and set the tone for a solid year for his colleagues.
Jaylen Wright has been the second of the one-two punch, but that may change this year. Word on the street is that it may be Wright getting the starting nod moving forward after leading the team in rushing yards last season (875 yds) and having a stellar off-season and Fall camp. Wright has always been the more naturally gifted of the two. He’s an athletic freak with genuine game-breaking potential. The thing is, much like his quarterback, that potential has yet to be fully met. Some fumbling issues early last season, inconsistencies in blitz pickups, and a tendency to dance East/West when he should be running North/South have held Wright back from becoming a truly elite running back. The good news is… these are super fixable problems for a running back! The chatter is that Wright has been putting in the work. If he is able to put things together this year, Jaylen Wright has the potential to be the first Vol to rush for 1,000 yards since 2015 and could be one of the best backs in the SEC.
Dylan Sampson is where things get really interesting. Hot take coming in: I personally believe that Dylan Sampson in the most talented back in the room currently. This is based purely on the eye test mind you. He has the look, feel, and fluidity of a back who could put up unbelievable numbers in this type of offense. Now, just because I believe he’s the most talented does not mean I believe he’ll be the statistical leader of the group this year. Small and Wright are going to continue to get the bulk of the carries for the time being and will eat into Sampson’s production. Sampson is only a true sophomore and has more growth to do. The coaching staff clearly did not trust him in pass protection last year and that kept him off the field a little more than I think most anticipated. More good news though… he got better! When he got better, he got more opportunities and we finally saw him explode with 12 carries for 131 yds (including an 80 yarder) to finish the season against Vanderbilt. He had a couple of plays here and there against Ball State, LSU, and Mizzu that left me salivating. If Sampson improves his all around game and understand of the nuances of this offense, look for him to be a guy that can check into any given game this season and explode for a game-changing play.
One more hot take on Sampson: We all know that Jabari Small has an injury history and it’s very likely that Small will miss at least SOME time at some point this season. Last year when Small had to come out, Hendon Hooker was able to add some extra running to the game plan himself – I don’t expect the same from Joe Milton. This year, if Small misses time, Sampson is going to get more reps, and I’m telling you right now, no matter what the word is from practice or camp, this kid is a gamer. He has “the look”. If you look up somewhere around the Texas A&M game and realize “what, Dylan Sampson is leading our team in rushing right now??”, don’t be surprised. Tell ’em you heard it here first.
Josh Heupel’s offense begins and ends with the running game. This is what makes the whole machine work despite what silly pundits who call our offense an “Air Raid” say. In order to give Joe Milton the looks that he needs to get the most out of that diamond encrusted right arm, the running backs have to make defenses pay attention to them and this year I believe they will. Look for Heupel to call more runs early and often and set Milton up for more play action this season than we’ve seen yet. All three backs with have a chance to feast.
I haven’t even mentioned the addition of talented guys like Cam Seldon and Khalifa Keith, reason being that I don’t expect to see much of them as far as significant minutes. And this is how the Vols should want it to go this year. If we only see these two in blow-out garbage time, things are going right. But if worse comes to worst, let’s say Small and Wright are both dinged up with injuries, I believe these guys will be able to contribute in doses. Best case scenario, however, is that these two see low stakes action in selective games, and are ready to form a new fearsome threesome with Sampson leading the way in 2024.
I would like to see Small, Wright, and Sampson combine for 2,600 yards this season and I think it’s absolutely possible. If this happens, Joe Milton will be able to play free and easy in the pocket and let his futuristic sci-fi cyber arm do the rest.
4. If Milton Is Slingin’, Who’s Gonna Be Catchin’?
I can tell you which position group is NOT going to struggle at all for the Vols this year, and it’s the Wide Receiver room.
Bad news first, Tennessee lost a 1,081 yd receiver to the NFL this offseason in Cedric Tillman. Oh and we also lost a 1,267 yd Biletnikoff award winning receiver to the NFL as well in Jalin Hyatt.
The good news? That will not matter in the least.
Tennessee comes into 2023 with 4 clear-cut alpha receivers who are more than capable of reproducing the production of the aforementioned Tillman and Hyatt from ’21 and ’22. In fact, the potential is there for this group of four to be even more balanced and more explosive as a whole. Bru McCoy, Squirrel White, Ramel Keyton, and Dont’e Thornton have a combination of experience, toughness, speed, and skill that will keep every defensive coordinator up at night during game week all season long.
One of the more popular off-season topics among Vol media has been “Who’s going to be the 2023 leading receiver??”. It’s a fun argument to be had when you consider that each of Josh Heupel’s two seasons on Rocky Top have produced a break-out star receiver: Cedric Tillman in ’21 and Jalin Hyatt in ’22. The mind naturally wonders who will break out in ’23.
My thoughts on this are two-fold: One, does it even matter? And two, is it even possible for someone to necessarily “break out” when the ball should be distributed somewhat evenly this year? I don’t think you’re going to see a receiving focal point in ’23 the way we’ve seen Tillman and Hyatt own the previous years. Allow me to explain why and how I think the receiver’s roles are going to play out.
The addition of Dont’e Thornton into an already solid rotation makes things interesting. This offense doesn’t like to play with four wide outs on the field all at once. If you add a fourth receiver, you have to remove a tight end, and Heupel likes to keep a versatile tight end on the field because of how “read-and-react” heavy this scheme is. Tennessee skips the huddle, gets to the line quickly, and spreads the field to the max to force the defense to show its hand. Depending on what they see, they will either call their next pass play, or check down to a run. You want your versatile tight end on the field in order to move in motion to run block if the defense dictates. You also like your tight end out on the edge to block for speedy playmakers on the short screen passes. Bottom line, Tennessee is mostly going to want three receivers on the field for any given drive. Someone has to sacrifice the reps.
But sacrificing reps doesn’t have to be seen as a negative in this offense. The media talking point is that Heupel tends to identify his three top receivers and then run with them so anyone outside the top three won’t contribute as much. Let’s not have a short memory here. In 2021 the top three were Velus Jones, JaVonta Payton, and Tillman but Jalin Hyatt and Ramel Keyton still appeared in almost every game and got opportunities. Tillman, Hyatt, and McCoy were the clear top three last season but that didn’t keep Keyton and Squirrel White off the field either.
Injuries happen, which allowed Keyton more opportunities last season, and Heupel does sub receivers more than sometimes people realize. It’s true that Heupel doesn’t typically sub much in any given drive, but in between drives, I’m betting your going to see more rotation between four guys this year than we have in the past. There’s just too much talent to keep one of them off the field for an extended period of time. How much fun is the prospect of a tired, worn out defense who’s just been shell shocked by the speed of this offense for three quick drives, only for Squirrel White to trot out onto the field with completely fresh legs? Suddenly Ramel Keyton gets to sit for a drive or two only to come back in with fresh legs himself for a key 2-minute drill to end the half.
Having four bona fide dudes in a three-man rotation means that SOMEONE is going to be fresh and ready to burn a corner at all times. This should make you drool.
Here’s how I see the wide receiver roles playing out:
Bru McCoy will be The Enforcer and Mr. Crunch Time. Bru will set the tone early with quick short throws that allow him to smash defenders and juice up the team. He will also be the go-to guy in high pressure situations. 3rd and 7? Watch for Bru McCoy. Need to put together an end-of-half or game winning drive? Ball is going to Bru. He’s already done it. This year he will be better at it. I don’t expect him to be the number one receiver statistically, but he will be the unquestioned leader of the group and will be the one that Milton looks for when he knows he needs something important.
Ramel Keyton will be Mr. Reliable. Keyton will be this team’s best route runner and most consistent player. I don’t believe he will lead the group in receiving yards, but I do predict he will lead in catches. He won’t drop balls, he will always be in the right spot at the right time, and every now and then, he’ll sneak behind defenses for a back breaker. His consistency will command so much attention from defenses that he’ll open up the run game and provide more opportunities for Squirrel and Thornton simply by being on the field and doing his job. Expect Keyton to be on the opposite site of Bru McCoy in the biggest moments when Milton needs it most.
Squirrel White will be The Weapon. This is the guy who all defenders at all times will have to know where he is on the field. Tennessee will have Squirrel in the slot and will use him in a variety of ways – screens, intermediate routs, end around handoffs, and deep balls. He will move around so much that defenders will consistently lose him. Expect him to break free for huge gains multiple times per game this year. Given the clear chemistry that Squirrel seemed to develop with Joe Milton during last season that culminated in the Orange Bowl, I predict that Squirrel will lead the ’23 team in receiving yards.
Dont’e Thornton will be The Razzle-Dazzle. At 6’5″ but with blazing speed, you’re going to see Thornton line up in the slot as well as the outside. Thornton will be the one who gets the fades in the redzone. He will be the guy who takes a random screen pass 75 yards to the endzone. I believe Thornton will play a similar role to JaVonta Payton in ’21, but I expect him to be more consistent, and explode more often. I don’t look for him to lead this team in receptions or yards (capable, yes, but I feel that Squirrel’s chemistry with Milton will take reps from Dont’e) but I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up leading the team in touchdowns and the more obscure stat – moments that make your jaw drop.
5. Pass Rush Covers A Multitude Of Sins
Let’s talk defense!
That’s right, Josh Heupel teams also come with a defense as hard as that is to believe.
When it comes to defense in the Heupel era, there’s only question that matters: what needs to happen to make this defense…BETTER.
When you have the number one offense in college football, you really just need a serviceable defense to be a contender. And that’s exactly what Tennessee had last season. A serviceable defense that wasn’t too bad but wasn’t too good either. It was enough to grab eleven wins and a major bowl victory. But it wasn’t enough to get them to the playoffs and be a true title contender. You can’t be the defense for a team with championship aspirations and give up 63 points to South Carolina, you just can’t. Them’s the rules.
But Tennessee wasn’t as bad on defense throughout the year as some might try to make it out. I’ll get into more details why shortly. The thing is, Tennessee only needs some small and reasonable improvements on the defensive side of the ball to move from fringe contender, to true contender and make a run at Georgia for the East.
Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, about the upcoming performance of this defense will be dependent on the state of the pass rush. I made this same argument last year and the pass rush was OKAY but not great – which reflected on the defense as a whole. How can we move from OKAY, to actually pretty good in 2023?
First of all, it needs to fall on the defensive line to create the bulk of the pressure without having to rely on too many inside linebacker and secondary blitzes. Last season, the pass rush was led by Byron Young off the edge with 7 sacks. You know who was second on the team in sacks? Backup middle linebacker Aaron Beasley with 3 sacks. That’s great for Beasley, but from a team pressure generation prospective, that’s not ideal AT ALL.
There’s two problems with that, one – Byron Young is long gone, off to the NFL to wreak havoc. Two – stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Vols pass coverage in the secondary has, uhhh, not been great recently. They need linebacker bodies back there with them to plug holes and help in coverage. Every time Tennessee blitzed, you held your breathe because it was either getting home to the QB or it will be picked up and almost certainly completed for a big gain by opposing offenses.
Tennessee’s pass coverage could be improved dramatically if the front four can create consistent pressure on their own without have to rely on blitzes. This isn’t a new concept. Think back to every great defense you can think of and I’ll bet the thing they all have in common was that they had a disruptive defensive line and could drop linebackers in coverage to muddle things up. But it’s not quite that simple with Tennessee, because their offense is SO fast paced and gets off field SO quickly, Vol defenses find themselves on the field much more often than normal teams which is exhausting and puts stress on the D as a whole. To combat this, you have to approach defense a certain way. I made this comparison last year but allow me to explain it a little more because I think it’s important.
Can you think of another football defense who had good-but-not-elite talent at the linebacker and secondary positions, played with a high-scoring, up tempo offense, found themselves on the field a lot, and had an unfair reputation because they gave up a lot of yards? I can. The Indianapolis Colts of 2002-2010. With the defense described above, they won a Super Bowl in ’06 and had a team capable of winning Super Bowls in ’03, ’04, ’05, ’08, and ’09 (the reasons they didn’t are for another blog post). Peyton Manning led an offense on those teams that was consistently top three, played fast with the no-huddle, scored quickly and often, and forced his defenses to play lots of snaps, usually with a lead. Sounds familiar, right? Heupel’s offense also plays fast, scores quickly and often, and forces his own defense to play lots of snaps usually with a lead.
So how did the Colts build a defense that was worthy of title contention for several years and managed to win one? They understood that by default, their defenses were going to be on the field a lot more than normal, and that because they would play with a lead so often, opposing offenses were going to have to throw the ball more than normal in order to keep pace. This style of play naturally wears out pass coverage defenders and gives up yards.
The key to combating this? Don’t be concerned with yards, be concerned with points.
When your offense scores fast and furiously, a couple things happen for your defense. Opposing rushing yards tend to be low, opposing passing yards tend to be high, and time of possession is skewed. This can fool a stat-head fan into looking at the defensive numbers and saying “wow this defense sucks but at least their run defense is okay”.
Indianapolis understood that you can play this type of ball and still be a good defense if you can do two things: Get off the field on third down and get stops in the red zone.
Enter Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Two of the best edge rushers of their time period.
Indianapolis knew that they were going to get every offense’s best attempt in order to keep up with Peyton Manning so the defensive game plan was this: play Cover 2 to keep the ball in front of them and limit big plays. Giving up yards is fine, but once the field shrinks in the red zone, man up and unleash Freeney and Mathis on the QB. Indy was more than willing to give you a Field Goal because they knew they would be scoring touchdowns. When the Colts got you to third down or in a tough red zone spot, you could bet that Freeney and Mathis were getting into the QB’s face, creating sacks, causing strip fumbles, and forcing interceptions in chaotic plays. Because the edge rushing was so potent, Indy could drop it’s linebackers back in coverage to cause more chaos. this led to stops and turnovers in big moments. It’s how Indy won the vast majority of their games, and besides New England (barf) they were the winningest franchise in football during that stretch of years.
Tennessee has the right mindset to do something similar. If you’re Defensive Coordinator Tim Banks, you know you’re going to be on the field a lot. You know your guys particularly in the secondary are going to be exhausted. But you also know that your offense is going to give you a lead to work with. It’s okay to trade Field Goals for Touchdowns. We will give up yards by nature, but if we can generate a pass rush with our front four, we can drop our guys back in coverage, limit big plays, get off the field on third down, hold up in the red zone, and create turnovers. Banks has been attempting this so far in his tenure and has gotten close but not quite there because the pass rush by the front four has been inconsistent. He’s had to blitz more than he likely wants, and more blitzing leads to more boom or bust plays.
But like I said before, your leading pass rusher in Byron Young is gone. Who’s going to step up set the tone on the defensive line to be consistent? I’m looking at you, Tyler Baron. I’m looking at you Roman Harrison. These two are your senior leaders. It has to start with them. Joshua Josephs flashed amazing potential in short stints last year. James Pearce Jr and Tyre West have ability. There’s lots of buzz around freshman Caleb Herring. Let’s see it happen this year. If these guys can get after the QB, get some sacks, cause some mistakes, Tennessee’s defense will suddenly be viewed much differently.
I know people have been frustrated with Tim Banks, but he’s on the right track. It’s time for the unproven guys on this D-line to prove him right.
6. Linebacker Attitude Adjustments May Prove More Important Than Skill
When I think of great Middle Linebackers, I think of great leaders and warriors. I think of Al Wilson, Ray Lewis, and Brian Urlacher. Guys that showed up every game, gave their all, kept the rest of the defense focused and in line and led by example with their play.
None of this describes last year’s starting linebackers Jeremy Banks and Juwan Mitchell. No matter how much athletic ability and natural talent they possessed, they were detriments to the locker room, plain and simple. Both are no longer with your Volunteers and addition by subtraction may just be the name of the game here.
No other position group on the team has turned over as drastically as the linebacker room. The problem creators are out, and we’ve brought in what we hope are the problem solvers. Aaron Beasley is one of the only returnees in this group and he was given the opportunity to lead the linebacker room in the Orange Bowl. To say he passed with flying colors is an understatement. Beasley is the show-up-for-work-lead-by-example guy that this group has been missing. The Vols also went out and got them a proven leader in the transfer portal, picking up Keenan Pili from BYU. Pili is a 25 year-old, grown man, veteran linebacker with experience, discipline, and mature leadership that this group sorely needed. Add in some uber-talented young guys like Arion Carter, Jeremiah Telander, Jalen Smith, and Elijah Herring to learn from the old heads, and this group could be scary good.
If the D-Line steps up as previously mentioned, this group of linebackers could be flying all over the field this year. Remember the game plan – third downs and red zone. If this group starts to tap into its potential, they could move the Vols from okay in these categories to really, really good.
7. Hey, Secondary – It’s Time To Put Up, Or Shut Up
No position group in Josh Heupel’s two seasons has take more flak than the secondary. And some of it is fairly deserved. But sometimes two things can be true at once. For instance, it’s true that the Vols secondary has struggled and has tons of room for improvement. It’s also true that in the grand scheme of things, the secondary played pretty well and somewhat effectively last season.
Look, if I told you that in 2022, Tennessee’s defense would be 4th in the SEC in scoring defense and it would help generate 11 wins and an Orange Bowl victory, you would be pretty happy about that, right?
Well that’s exactly what happened. A BAD secondary does not give up the 4th fewest points in the SEC – especially when your own offense is number one in scoring…
There’s talent back there. Good talent that hasn’t been fully realized just yet. Youth, lack of depth, and injuries have played a part in the slower development. But that development is coming. The depth has been restocked. Injuries have healed. Suddenly, there’s a full cupboard of secondary players ready to jockey for position and make an impact.
Doneiko Slaughter and Kamal Hadden should start at Cornerback. Slaughter began his career at Safety and didn’t even realize that not only was he likely a better corner until mid-season last year, but that he might actually be the best corner on the team. Hadden made a multitude of immature mistakes last year, but his talent is undeniable. Has he grown from those mistakes? Hadden will be the embodiment of “put up or shut up” in 2023. If he puts up, our outside receiver coverage could be above average this year. Add in experienced transfer Gabe Jeudy-Lally, Brandon Turnage and Warren Burrell back from injury, and Tamarion McDonald back to work at the Star position, and the corners could be looking at a very productive season.
And this year, if someone is not pulling their weight or straggling behind in development, the freshmen talents of Rickey Gibson, and Cristian Conyer, are licking their chops in anticipation.
The Safety position may have a little more to prove in my mind, particularly senior FS Jaylen McCollough. For the safeties, this is your “put up or shut up” guy. To this point, McCollough has only proven one thing: extreme inconsistency. He and last year’s senior SS Trevon Flowers were the poster children of making a great play and following it up with a disastrous play. McCollough will start again this season because of his experience, but unlike in year’s past, in 2023 depth is creeping up and Jaylen will be looking over his shoulder. My hot take here is that McCollough’s leash with last through the Florida game. If he does not show true improvement and more consistency, look for some young guys to be getting some reps. Don’t be surprised if Andre Turrentine is starting by South Carolina week.
At the SS spot, Wesley Walker should have that on lockdown. Walker is someone who should’ve played more last season. This year he will be a regular on the field and I’ll be looking at him to produce results.
When you zoom out and look at the depth and talent in the secondary, you can’t help but almost get… excited. Again, like all the other unproven talent on this team, it’s up to them to produce.
The Bottom Line
If you’ve made it this far, you’ve probably notice a theme, right? The success of 2023 across the board all depends on unproven potential. With the exception of a small handful of players, everyone slated to contribute meaningful minutes this season has something to prove.
When you zoom out and look at the roster position by position, you could easily think, “wow, this team has the potential talent to go 11-1 and win the East” – and you would be right! You could just as easily look at the same roster and be like “hmmm if this guy doesn’t work out, or this guy is a let down, or this guy gets injured… we may be looking at 8-4” – and you would also be right. That’s what makes this team so hard to predict.
Let’s be real here, the 2022 Tennessee Volunteers overachieved in Josh Heupel’s second season. Outstanding coaching from the whole staff, stellar quarterback play from Hooker and an out-of-nowhere historic season from Jalin Hyatt helped put the Vols at least two years ahead of schedule in my opinion. But in Tennessee, with great results come great expectations.
Is an 11-1 season and an SEC Championship appearance possible in 2023? It absolutely is. The talent and ability is there. Is it probable? I would say no. Last year’s South Carolina game was a reminder that this team is still young and is still learning how to win at the highest levels. My gut tells me that we may still be one more year away from true title contention.
With that being said, if the offensive line plays solid, consistent ball, if the running backs take the next step and set the tone all season, if the wide receivers and tight ends make explosive plays all over the field, if the defensive line pressures the QB, if the linebackers step up as team leaders, if the secondary shows improvement and gets the defense off the field, and if Joe Milton III plays anywhere near close to the ceiling that he’s capable of… ANYTHING is on the table for this team. Let’s take a look at some official predictions from yours truly.
2023 Predictions: 10 Things I Think Will Happen
1. Tennessee Wins In The Swamp
Regardless of the final record this year, Tennessee is going to finally beat Florida in The Swamp for the first time since 2003. It’s been 20 years… Casey Clausen was our QB, I was 13 years old. The bill is due. Too many times over the years, Tennessee has made the trip to Florida as perhaps the better team, and lost. Tennessee should be heavy favorites this year, but make no mistake, it will not be easy. There is a real, true mental block that Tennessee as a program has when matched up against Florida. No matter the era or the players or coaches on each side, it exists. I firmly believe that even though Tennessee is much better than these Gators on paper and that Florida could really struggle this year, this is the most important game on Tennessee’s schedule. The MUST exorcise this demon on the road, they MUST win this game to set the tone for the season. A loss here could legitimately derail the year and force Tennessee to take a a step back. These Vols will be focused and understand the moment. They will learn from last year’s close call. Vols win by multiple scores.
2. Squirrel White Will Lead Tennessee In Receiving Yards
I touched on this in an earlier segment but I’m bringing it up again because I think Squirrel is getting a tad overlooked in the crowded receiving room. Something tells me he’s used to be overlooked for much of his life. He doesn’t have the impressive physical tools that his counterparts McCoy, Keyton, and Thornton possess, but I feel like he has three sneaky intangibles that may bump him to the top of the room: instinct, chemistry, and unmatched speed. Squirrel might as well have been created in a University of Tennessee science class lab specifically to be a receiver for Joe Milton. If Hooker was still our QB or even Nico, I don’t think I’m picking Squirrel to break out in this way, but there’s something about the Squirrel/Milton connection that I think could be special this year. The strongest arm in football with the only guys fast and twitchy enough to run down those deep balls… We saw it almost every time they both got in a game during garbage time last season. How many fireworks are they going to produce now that they’re the leaders and have had two full off-seasons to work together? I think it could be a whole lot.
3. Dylan Sampson Will Be The Biggest Surprise On Offense
I touched on this one earlier as well. Everyone is talking about Jaylen Wright this off-season and rightfully so. He will still be the statistical leader of this running group. But I’m telling you right now, we are sleeping big time on Dylan Sampson. Sampson is smooth, fluid, and fast. He’s bulked up a little over the summer and if you listen to coaches and teammates, he’s been working hard and improving every area of his game. Picking up blitzes and pass blocking was his most glaring area of opportunity last year, but that’s typical for freshmen backs. Don’t be surprised if he has a much larger role to play this season and contributes to big, explosive plays. I’m betting he will lead in yards per carry once again and may challenge the veteran backs for playing time more than previously thought. He will be setting himself up for a breakout 2024.
4. Tyler Baron Will Make Himself Some Money This Year
The senior on the D-Line is in a “contract year” so to speak. Throughout his career, his production has always been beneath his ability. That seems to have been due to several factors, injuries being chief among them. It all comes down to 2023. He’s healthy, he’s the veteran leader, and he’s still one of the most talented players on the team, but if he wants to play on Sundays in 2024, his production must catch up to his ability this season. I predict that this sense of urgency will push Baron to have his best year as a Vol. If Baren sets the tone for the rest of the line and becomes a consistent threat to rush opposing QBs, he could open up the flood gates for this line to be successful.
5. Aaron Beasley Will Make An All-SEC Team
The linebacker room has completely turned over and Aaron Beasley has emerged as the leader. Beasley had a solid year in 2022 but truly broke out with an Orange Bowl performance that could have easily landed him the game’s MVP award. Look for him to build on that success and confidence and lead this entire defense to improve across the board.
6. Dee Williams Will Return 3 Punts For Touchdowns – Jackson Ross Will Convert One Fake Punt Into First Down In 2023
Another guy getting a little overlooked is Dee Williams in the punt return game. Williams is slippery, twitchy, and explosive. He came close to breaking a couple of returns for points last season and finally got one to the house in the season finale against Vanderbilt. He did have a slow start to the season as he missed the first few games due to injury. Look for him to come out firing this season and make impacts on field position. I predict he’ll score two touchdowns against cupcake teams like Austin Peay or Uconn and will score one touchdown in a big moment against Texas A&M or Mizzu.
At punter, I’m very interested to see what we have in Jackson Ross. The big, athletic punter from Australia is intriguing and I hear he’s quite the all-around athlete. A talented punter with personality is always a fun addition to any football team. I expect Tennessee to use his versatility to their advantage and will sneak in a fake punt in a big game. I’ll be looking for it specifically vs South Carolina, Texas A&M, or Georgia.
7. No Redshirt for Nico Iamaleava – Give Him Reps!
A popular take by fans over the summer is the prospect of Nico playing sparingly in the 4 lesser games and preserving a redshirt to keep four years of eligibility in the post-Milton future. I’m here to tell you, it’s not happening. Even if Milton goes the distance without injury, Nico is going to play in 2023 and he’ll play a lot. Nico didn’t come here to be a redshirt senior. He’s going to The League.
Nico needs as many meaningful reps as he can get this season to prepare him for 2024. Any time the Vols have a game in hand this year regardless of opponent, Milton needs to be yanked and Nico needs to get in with the keys to the full playbook. We want to see Nico running the offense and taking shots to Nathan Leacock similar to how we saw Milton stay sharp taking shots to Squirrel White at the end of games last season.
And no, before you say it, don’t listen to those wet blanket commentators who were complaining at the end of last year’s Missouri game that Tennessee was running up the score and breaking the sportsmanship rules. This is about preparation and practicing against live competition that you just can’t simulate yourselves. If teams want to stop us from scoring more points at the end of games, then stop us with your defense. Otherwise, Nico will be getting in his reps to make his 2024 run. Hopefully Joe Milton can make it through this entire season with good health and no controversy. But Nico will be waiting in the wings. If his number is called for any reason, he needs to be ready.
We should see plenty Nico Iamaleava as soon as next Saturday in the 4th quarter vs Virginia.
8. Joe Milton Will Fall Just Short Of A Heisman Finalist Invitation, But Will Make Himself A First Round Draft Pick
Here’s my official Joe Milton prediction. Milton has done all the right things this summer, he’s said all the right things, he’s prepared the right way, and coaches/teammates/analysts are saying all the right things about him. I think he’s showed enough to convince me that he’s going to go out there and get it done at a high level this year. I predict Milton will be a top three QB in the SEC. I predict that he will throw fewer than five picks on the year. I believe that he will JUST miss the cut as a Heisman finalist this year and that he will be the buzz of the NFL draft similar to Anthony Richardson last season. I do think that he will have a game or two where his decision-making is just a touch off and it will cause us to drop a couple of games. I believe we will get roughly 85% of Joe Milton’s true potential and that there will be plenty of fireworks and jaw-dropping moments, but there will be just enough negatives to keep us out of the playoffs. At the end of the day, I believe it will be a fun, successful season that will leave us wanting a little bit more, however, his play will set him up for a chance to do something at the next level.
9. The 2023 Season Will Be A Springboard To True Title Contention In 2024
Now we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. While I think the 2023 have the potential to represent the East in the SEC Championship and even make the playoffs, I don’t think they are quite there just yet. I think we are going to have a similar season to 2022 but the main thing is this: Tennessee is going to see signs of sustained success while developing their elite young talent to compete for bigger things in the future. This will be the final season for most of Heupel’s inherited talent, with his hand-picked, young guys ready to take over and become veterans.
Internally, the team’s goal of this season is to win the SEC East and win an SEC Championship – as it should be. But as a fan looking from the outside in, I see this year as a chance to prove to the college football world that Tennessee is back where it belongs and has staying power. Tennessee is now and should remain back among the ten best, most consistent, and most competitive football programs in the country. Prove it this year. Develop this young talent into elite depth. Prime yourself to make a real run at the National Championship in 2024 and beyond.
10. Final Schedule Prediction
In 2023 I predict Tennessee to finish the regular season at 10-2 with losses on the road at Alabama and Kentucky. I do believe we will defeat Georgia at home, but miss the SEC Championship game due to Georgia being a one-loss team.
Virginia, Austin Peay, and UTSA should be gimmies. Even though UTSA will have some talent, they won’t be in the same class as Tennessee. I’ve already explained the Florida win above.
South Carolina is the game that every player on this roster will have circled in blood on their calendars. This will almost certainly be a night game at Neyland and the crowd will be downright spiteful. There is no universe where I see Tennessee losing this game.
Texas A&M could be tricky because the Aggies are undeniably talented. My biggest reason for picking this one as a win is that Tennessee will be coming off a bye week and Heupel has demonstrated to be a master game-planner especially when given an extra week. This will be Jimbo’s fist matchup with Heupel at Tennessee and I believe the shell shock of playing against this offense combined with an electric Neyland home crowd will be the difference.
We are the team that Alabama will have circled on their calendars. All of Bama’s energy will be poured into this game and I feel like it will be too much for this Vols team to overcome. It’s tough to imagine getting back-to-back wins over a Nick Saban coached Crimson Tide team. There are factors that still make this game interesting and I reserve my right to change my mind as the season goes along. But as it stands right now, Saban is the college football GOAT for a reason and I expect him to be filled with revenge.
After Alabama we have to go on the road at Kentucky and this is the one that has “Trap Game” written all over it. Kentucky will be coming off their own bye week and will be thinking about us embarrassing them on national television last year while we are thinking about Alabama. There will almost certainly be some sort of emotional letdown for the team if we do indeed lose a tough one to Bama. Kentucky upgraded at QB with the transfer addition of Devin Leary and they have quality playmakers all over the field. They have their play-caller back who hung 42 on us in 2021. It just has the feel of a perfect storm type of game. I believe Tennessee is going to lose one game this year that they should win and I think the circumstances point to Kentucky.
Tennessee will recalibrate and make things right vs Uconn before traveling to Mizzu. The Missouri game for some weird reason seems to be a popular upset pick by media for Tennessee and I just don’t see it at all. In 2021 Tennessee went to Mizzu and won 62-24. Last season Mizzu came to Neyland and we won 66-24. Mizzu coach Eli Drinkwitz is clearly in over his head in this matchup and has not proven even a little bit that he has any idea how to combat Heupel’s offense. I see no reason why Tennessee doesn’t go for 60+ points for a third straight year.
This will lead us to Georgia at home. I went back and forth here because I could easily see us losing this game and going 9-3. I’m picking Tennessee here for two reasons. One, Tennessee is not as far away from competing with Georgia as it felt last season and this game is at home. Georgia has turned over their roster for the third straight year and will be walking into a fire pit in Neyland Stadium. Heupel is going to pull out all the stops and Tennessee is going to hang around step-for-step and give themselves a chance at the end similar to Bama last year. Two, I simply don’t believe that Georgia is going to be able to three-peat for another title. That level of consistency just doesn’t feel possible. As I mentioned, they are turning over their roster for the third straight year, eventually something has to give. Even in the thick of Alabama’s championship runs, they took some losses because you just can’t go undefeated every year. I think Georgia is going to take one against Tennessee this year, loses in the SEC Championship and either just misses the playoffs or loses in the first round.
Tennessee will then host Vanderbilt where they will beat up on little brother as usual to finish 10-2 with a shot at another New Year’s Six bowl game.
10-2 feels most realistic to me although 9-3 would still feel on par with the direction we need to go and I wouldn’t feel bad about it. If things go wrong and we drop one to South Carolina or Texas A&M to go 8-4, I would feel pretty disappointed and that “battered vol syndrome” would start creeping in for 2024, but I think we’re good enough to avoid that. There is a universe that exist where Tennessee puts it together, wins that Kentucky game, goes 11-1 and makes it to the SEC Championship game. I will be surprised if it happens but it’s not completely out of the question.
I think what it comes down to is that this will be a roller coaster season and regardless of how it plays out, 2023 should not define the future of Josh Heupel’s program. Expect this to be a bridge year – moving Tennessee entirely out of the previous era and into a new, bright, consistent future.
That being said, if the pieces fall into place and we fool around and win big, you won’t see me complain.
Recent Comments