The Houston Rockets traded their franchise cornerstone to the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. Where do both teams go from here?

Well, it’s finally over. 

The standoff between the Houston Rockets and their franchise superstar James Harden came to a merciful end on Wednesday, with the Rockets trading Harden to the Brooklyn Nets in a four-way deal that ultimately sent Caris LeVert to Indiana, Jarrett Allen to Cleveland, and Victor Oladipo plus a bevy of draft picks and other assets to Houston. 

Credit Houston for at least trying.  No one WANTS to give up a generation defining player who is still in his prime.  The Rockets made some decent offensive moves, put some fresh pieces and talent in place, and tried to give Harden a chance to change his mind and give it one more shot at chasing a title for the city who’s given him everything that he wants for the last eight years.  It’s clear, however, that James Harden had already made up his mind weeks ago (if not months ago) that he was done. 

I live in Houston and I understand the impact that James Harden has in this city.  He’s a beloved figure here, perhaps only a tier below the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and JJ Watt.  Had he brought an NBA title back to this city, he would have been immortalized.  I’m not going to get into all the ways that Harden made the last several weeks tough and embarrassing for himself and the city (breaking COVID rules, showing up the practice late and woefully out of shape, disrespecting his new teammates and coaches, among other things), that will be an article for another time.  For now, I’m just glad that this is over and I’m glad that he’s gone. 

And I hate saying that I’m glad that he’s gone.

At this point, most of Houston is glad to be perfectly honest.  I doubt that Harden wanted it to be this way, but that’s the price you pay for putting a city on your back, only to force your way out by using cringeworthy antics with two years left on your mega-contract.

Despite the end, James Harden did a lot of good for this city and the franchise.  I’ll talk about Harden’s legacy another day when I’m not all up in my feels.  For now, where does this new version of the Rockets go, and will The Beard find what he’s looking for in Brooklyn?

The Rockets Fallout

The ultra small-ball Pocket Rockets are gone.  The one man “dribble-dribble-dribble-shoot” offense is gone.  What’s left is a team of new faces with big questions (and big personalities), a first time head coach, and no identity.   

I think we can all agree at this point that Christian Wood was an absolute steal.  He may end up being the best player on this team even if some former All-Stars get back to that level.  Regardless of what happens in the immediate future, Wood should be the guy that becomes the new building block that anchors the Rockets for the next few years.

PJ Tucker and Eric Gordon are interesting pieces that should hold value for contending teams looking to beef up their depth.  They are the last major contributors from the peak Harden-era teams of 2017 and 2018 and I expect one or both of them to be moved by the trade deadline.  Does Houston try to flip them for some immediate help this year for a playoff push, or will they be focused on draft assets? 

That question may depend on the status of three players named John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and Victor Oladipo.  All three have two things in common:  major leg injuries that have kept each of them out for significant time, and a less than stellar history of locker room influence. 

The early season returns for John Wall have been promising.  He seems engaged and ready to write a new chapter for himself in Houston.  He’s been a natural leader for the team and is showing flashes of his old, athletic form.  Of the three of them, Wall’s contract is the longest and most expensive.  He will likely be locked into Houston for the next few seasons and will use that time to either rebuild his value or genuinely try to become the face of a franchise once again.  The ability and maturity is there, the question is, will the health be there?

Demarcus Cousins is on an expiring contract and will be a free agent at the end of the season, but if I’m Houston, I don’t think I’m worried about him being a flight risk at this point.  Boogie seems excited to be reunited with Wall (they were college teammates at Kentucky) and he seems to have found acceptance in his new role as a basketball player.  Injuries over the last several years have brought an end to Boogie’s All-Star level of physical dominance.  That level of play just isn’t possible for Cousins anymore, and he seems to understand that.  If Boogie can stay healthy and put together a full season of coming off the bench and contributing important and efficient minutes in spurts, he could carve out a really nice role on this team.  Like John Wall, Cousins seems ready to put the locker room drama behind him and turn over a new leaf as he looks to compete on a winning team for a new chapter in his career.  Again, the number one question is health. 

Victor Oladipo is the one here that I’m not sure about.  Oladipo has also missed significant time with a leg injury and is yet to find his way back to his All-Star ways, however, he is likely the best bet of the three to do so. Unlike Wall and Cousins, I imagine Oladipo may be the biggest flight risk.  It is well known that Oladipo wanted out of Indiana and had his eyes set on Miami in particular.  Set to be a free agent this summer, does Oladipo use this year to rehab his leg, find his top-level form, and bolt for Miami?  If Houston senses this during the year, will the Rockets try to flip him while he’s still an asset?  Also, Oladipo is only 28 years old, so don’t rule out the possibility that he hits it off with John Wall, finds some good chemistry in the rising star of Christian Wood, looks at the basket of assets that Houston collected for Harden, and decides that maybe he can make a run here. Obviously, there are a whole lot of what-ifs here.  There is a universe where this works out great for Houston and they are right back to contending in just a couple of years.  There are also enough bad possibilities (injuries, locker room drama) that this could blow up before it even gets started.   Regardless, this is an era reset.  It will get weird before it gets better.  The reality for Houston, however, is that they are in a much better position than most teams tend to be when they lose a franchise star.  The ingredients are there to produce a winner. Time will tell what comes out.

Great Expectations in Brooklyn?

The Brooklyn Nets are shaping up to be a fascinating basketball experiment/reality show.  James Harden, who boasts one of the highest usage rates in NBA history, joins a team led by Kyrie Irving; an all-time great ballhandler and playmaker who needs the ball in his hands to stay engaged, and Kevin Durant; an all-time great scorer who needs and deserves to be allowed to create his own shot from any spot at any point of the game.

This Nets offense is going to be devasting no matter how you slice it.  There will be too much shooting and playmaking ability on the floor at all times for the offense to not work, even if the chemistry struggles.  The key to taking the offense from a naturally good offense to a championship caliber great offense is this:  who is going to be willing to sacrifice to make it work.

From the outside looking in, the pecking order seems like it should be clear.  Kevin Durant is the best scorer on the planet and the last time we saw him 100% healthy, he was the best two way player in the league and the two-time reigning Finals MVP.  This should be Kevin Durant’s team. 

Harden is next.  Harden’s greatest strength is his absurd efficiency in an incredibly large sample size.  It’s never been about a single possession with Harden, it’s about all the production that he can achieve with the ball in his hands over the course of an entire game.  How much of this usage and production will Harden be willing to concede after having the entire offense tailored to him for the last eight years?  If/when his sample sizes per game start to shrink, will he remain historically efficient?  Or for that matter, satisfied?

Kyrie Irving seems like the one who will be pushed into a new role by default.  Irving’s greatest strength has been his ability to create with the ball in his hands, whether he’s creating his own shot from improbable angles or creating an open look for someone else.  He will now be required to spend more time playing off-ball and figuring out how to impact the game in different ways.  The good news:  he’s done this before while playing off of LeBron in Cleveland and even won a title doing it.  The bad news: this is the exact reason that he became tired of playing with LeBron and forced his way out.   Of all the things that could go wrong for the Nets, it seems like the Kyrie situation is the most combustible. 

Steve Nash and Mike D’Antoni have a very complex task ahead of them to figure out how to stagger their stars on the floor, share the touches, and keep everyone happy and engaged.  It helps that each star does have experience in sacrifice.  Harden and Durant were teammates who made a Finals run in OKC in 2012.  KD won two titles playing with three other All-Stars in Golden State.  Kyrie Irving won a title playing Robin to LeBron’s Batman.  Each star will have to channel their pasts and embrace it.  The most pressing question right now though, is Kyrie even interested in coming back?   The uncertainty around Kyrie will certainly have some affect on this team, but even if he doesn’t return, a team around Harden and KD will remain unstoppable.  This will be a development to watch closely over the coming weeks. 

Brooklyn has an embarrassment of riches, albeit complicated riches.  There will be some rocky games as everyone gets acclimated but make no mistake, it is championship or bust in Brooklyn.