For those of you unfamiliar with the typical cycle of a Tennessee Volunteers Football fan over the last 20-some years, let me explain how it works.
- August: “I really like what we have this year”, “TN football might be back!”, “#FeelsLike98”
- September: “We look OKAY but something seems off”, “Why are our starters still in the game against Southern Missisippi???”, “Oh look we lost to Florida (again)”
- October: “The wheels are falling off”, “That was embarrassing”, “Guess we’ll try again next year..”
- November: “Oh look we beat Kentucky (again)”
- December: *If we make a bowl game, something weird will happen. *We chant S-E-C while one of our top rivals wins a National Championship. *We slip into a slow football depression and talk about how much we miss Peyton Manning, Al Wilson, Travis Henry, Jason Witten, and someone you know says, “I would even take Casey Clausen back over what we have now”.
- January-July: “I’m not even really excited for next season”, “I may only watch a couple games next year”, “I don’t even know who’s on the team anymore”
- August: “I really like what we have this year”, “TN football might be back!” “#FeelsLike98”
Well, it’s August and you know what? I really actually kinda sorta like what we have this year. Tennessee football might really actually kinda sorta be on its way back.
Gahh I hate myself. But this is how it is. I didn’t choose to be a Vols fan, I was born this way.
Regardless, it’s football time in Tennessee. Let’s break down what I want to see from the 2022 Tennessee Volunteers:
Josh Heupel’s Offense: Sustainably Legit or Predictable and Gimmicky?
I believe that Year Two will prove Josh Heupel’s offensive scheme one way or another. No one can deny that the 2021 offense was eons better than previous offenses at TN going all the way back to the Tyler Bray days, but here’s the thing: Was the offensive success of last year the product of a legitimately successful scheme capable of producing consistent results year in and year out on a week-to-week basis? Or, was our success more due to the shock factor of playing just ridiculously fast?
Almost every game last season, we saw TN explode out of the gate and literally stun opposing defenses – even Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. But another thing we saw last year, was that same explosive offense come back down to earth later in the game. Against the tougher competition, TN was unable to match their first quarter success in any other quarter of the game.
Here are my main questions:
- Did last season’s lack of depth play into production falling off as the game went on?
- How difficult is it for opposing defenses to get a handle on our system?
- Will the SEC teams that our offense blitzkrieged last year have a better handle on how to defend us this year?
- Last year’s numbers were nuts, but it feels like there’s a whole lot of room for improvement still. What exactly is the ceiling for this offense??
I’m going to be looking at 4 games in particular that I believe will give the answers to these questions.
Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, and South Carolina.
If the Vols offense shows improvement and better consistency in those 4 games, I think I’ll officially be 100% bought in on the long-term vision.
Against Florida, we obviously have to put up more than 14 points. I know there were factors last year (playing in The Swamp, Hooker just getting settle in and banged up, tHe FLoRiDa cUrSe, blah blah blah), but the fact remains that TN must score in the high 30’s to win this game. And if this offense is for real, there’s no reason we shouldn’t. It is imperative for the psyche of the entire Vols program that a statement is made in Neyland against Florida this year. If the offense blows this game, a lot of confidence will be shaken, and goodwill will be undone. That’s just how it works around these parts.
Against Mizzu, South Carolina, and Kentucky, I’m really just looking for consistency. We shell shocked all three of these defenses last season. It would be a big time PROVE IT statement to keep the party going against all three. If we are able to stun these teams again this year, I’ll have much more confidence in the long-term outlook of this system and the hype in my head might get unreasonably out of control.
Heupel has had consistent success with this offense at his previous programs, but this is the SEC. It’s just tougher on a weekly basis here. On the flip side, Heupel now has the resources to hand-pick the top talent and skill to craft his offense at Tennessee. If it works? It’s not a stretch to say that by Year Four we may be looking at one of the best offensive machines that college football has ever seen. Consider 2022 the crystal ball that will show us if that vision is possible.
Can Hendon Hooker and Cedric Tillman Build on Their Breakout Years? Can The Running Back Room Stay Healthy and Produce?
Some of the keys to answering my initial questions about the sustainability of the offense will depend on how much improvement we see from the established cornerstones, Hooker and Tillman.
For Hendon Hooker, he’s gone from a forgotten Virgina Tech transfer, to a guy who has a real chance to get himself into the early Heisman conversation with wide open opportunities to prove himself early against Pittsburg and Florida in September. Remember what Hooker did last season?
- 2,945 Yards
- 31 Touchdowns
- 3 Interceptions
- 181.4 Passer Efficiency Rating (school record)
- 68.0 Completion percentage (school record)
- 616 Rushing Yards
- 5 Rushing Touchdowns
That’s as solid a stat sheet as they come. But doesn’t it still feel like Hooker has so much room to improve and grow? This season, Hooker has the benefit of experience plus having an entire off season to work on the Heupel system as the unquestioned starter. If Hooker is able to captain this offense closer to its full potential, the numbers could actually be scary. Exactly how much he improves will dictate how far the gap will close between us and the Bama/Georgia’s of the world. Will his pocket presence be better? Can he cut down some of those pesky fumbles? Can he limit the amount of awkward hits he tends to take? That spin move he pulls off is smooth, but a twisted knee won’t do anyone any good.
**Side note: I expect to need Joe Milton to bail us out of at least one game this year. This is just kinda how sports work. Something to keep an eye on.
WR Cedric Tillman came out of literal nowhere last season. After having caught a grand total of 8 passes in his first three years as a Volunteer, he burst onto the scene in 2021 with 64 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns. How does that even happen? Andy Staples of The Athletic wrote a wonderful piece on Tillman where you can learn about his rise from obscurity into the SEC’s leading returning receiver with aspirations of becoming a first round NFL draft pick.
How well can Tillman build on his breakout year? This season, all opposing defenses will be game-planning for him. There will be no sneaking up on anyone. Thus is the life of a Star. How will Tillman be able to handle the advanced scheming and double teams that are surely coming his way? How he responds will have a direct impact on the ceiling of this year’s offense.
Tillman will also need some help from his fellow wide receivers. Velus Jones Jr. wreaked havoc on opposing defenses from the slot. Javonta Payton could take the top of off a defense on any given play. Both have moved on to the NFL. Who’s going to step up and force defenses to pay attention to them?
Jalin Hyatt is poised to take over for Velus Jones, but he has been inconsistent at best in his Tennessee career. Bru McCoy is eligible and ready to fill Payton’s shoes, but it’s been a hot minute since he has played meaningful football. Ramel Keyton has been full of promise for several years now, but has yet to deliver. The Jimmy’s Holiday and Calloway have speed, but do they have substance? Some talented freshmen have arrived in Chas Nimrod, Kaleb Webb, and Squirrel White. Do those guys get on the field this year and contribute? Basically everyone other than Tillman is extremely unproven. The Vols need 2 or 3 of these guys to separate themselves and claim their roles. Should that happen, Cedric Tillman may be unstoppable.
As for the running back depth chart, it’s nice but it’s thin. Health is the name of the game for this group. Easier said than done. Here’s the good news. Tennessee gets its leading rusher back in Jabari Small, they have an athletic “freak” first off the bench in Jaylen Wright, and they have a pair of dynamic freshmen in Dylan Sampson and Justin Williams-Thomas. I expect all four of these guys to get plenty of playing time and I expect all four to produce. Small has been well documented in remaking his body this season, adding weight to combat the beating that he will take on a nightly basis. If he can stay healthy, look for him to lead the way and challenge for a 1,000 yard season.
The way that this offense works, I’m not even concerned with production. The way these receivers spread the field combined with the tempo and one-on-one matchups the offensive line gets up front, put any runner back there and they should produce. But with only 4 backs in the rotation, even one significant injury could really throw a wrench into that production.
I’m curious what will happen if we get into a situation like that. I’ve heard some calls for Jeremy Banks to get some carries (being a former running back) but I’m not sure I’m down with that because he’s too important for the defense. I’m more intrigued by the prospect of some of our smaller, faster receivers getting some carries out of the backfield. Think Jeff Demps from that ’08 Florida Gators team or De’Anthony Thomas from the ’11 Oregon Ducks. Small, fast guys who don’t fit traditional running back molds can be very successful in short bursts with this sort of high tempo spread offense.
Regardless of who’s back there, however, I have high hopes that this year’s running attack will be able to pick up chunk yardage and first downs consistently.
Can our defense rush the passer?
This is my NUMBER ONE thing that I want to see from the defense this year. How well (or how bad) we rush the passer this year will determine how good (or bad) the defense will be overall. Are there questions at linebacker?
Sure.
Are the questions in the secondary?
Big yes.
Will any of that matter if we had an elite pass rush who is always in the opposing QB’s grill and forcing tempo and mistakes?
Not quite as much.
I think we all feel pretty good about feeling like Tennessee’s defense as a whole doesn’t have to be THAT much better this season to see the trending arrow point north. But let’s be real, this defense collectively has a longggggg way to go before it can even think about being elite. Depth across the board is still lacking and that secondary… lets just say its last showing in the bowl game against Purdue doesn’t exactly leave us salivating over their potential this year. Now, to be a little less “Johnny raincloud”, the secondary is a year older and wiser, and the additions of Wesley Walker and Adre Turrentine should be major boosts to depth, but let’s not crown them the 2013 Seattle Seahawks just yet.
You know what would help them out more than anything?
Pass rush.
When the QB can sit in the pocket forever and look to all of his wide receiver reads, you know what happens? A receiver will almost always pop open somewhere. I don’t even care how good your secondary is, in this age of football, it’s easier than ever for receivers to get open consistently somewhere down the field.
Now add pass rush to the equation.
When the QB has half the time to drop back and make his reads or he has to do so in 1-2 seconds under duress, it’s like adding 5 more players to the secondary. Suddenly, receivers don’t have time to finish their routes (much less improvise), passes are becoming less and less accurate, QBs are overthinking the plays and anticipating hits, sacks are causing lost yardage and long down situations.
A mediocre defense can instantly transform into a good and effective defense by doing nothing else than adding a consistent pass rush. Third and long (this was the Vols Achilles heel last year) becomes much easier when you have an elite pass rush. One possession games in the 4th quarter become much easier to deal with when you have an elite pass rush.
Want to know a good comparison to what a team can look like with an elite offense, a mediocre defense, but an amazing pass rush?
The 2006 Indianapolis Colts.
Indy had a league leading offense (led by your friendly neighborhood Peyton Manning) that could score whenever and however it wanted. But Indy’s defense was porous. They gave up big plays in the secondary, they couldn’t stop the run to save their lives. But you know what they did have?
An elite pass rush.
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis could get after the QB in any situation they were asked. Third and long when you know you need to get off the field? Boom. Freeney spin move for the sack, bring on the punter. Second and 9 deep inside your own territory and you smell blood in the water? Bam. Mathis bull rush from the blind side, forces a sack/fumble and now you have the ball First and Goal.
Watch any regular Colts win from like 2003-2009 and it will feel scripted because every game follows the same cadence.
- Indy jumps out to an early lead with that high powered offense to force opposing teams to throw the ball.
- Once teams are forced to abandon the run, Indy sits back in Cover 2, keeps everything in front of them, and forces third downs.
- On third downs, Freeney and Mathis are unleashed to cause chaos. They consistently get the opposing offenses off the field and force turnovers to ice games.
They followed this script over and over and over again. A team that always had an elite offense with a “meh” defense was taken over the top by a top notch pass rush and got a Super Bowl win out of it.
Now, Indy likely would have won multiple Super Bowl had they invested in make that defense complete, but that’s for another blog post.
My point is that this Tennessee team is literally just an elite pass rush away from having the ability to win 10 games and at least make the Alabama and Georgia games interesting.
Byron Young needs to be a star. Tyler Baron needs to take another step forward and be consistent. Others need to step up and get after the QB. Who are they gonna be?
If this can happen this year while the rest of the defense improves even slightly, watch for my expectations to get wildly out of control.
We’re gonna find out the answer to these questions soon. This week’s game against Ball State should be a tune up, but next week we travel to Pitt. That’s where we’re gonna learn a lot and I dare say, the entire outlook of the season may hinge.
I’m legitimately excited and optimistic to see what happens.
But you know, I say that every year…
Go. Big. Orange.
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