Playoff football is upon us and with the NFL expanding the wild-card format, we now have two additional games.  Here is a look at each wild-card matchup and my thoughts for each.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen.  Last year I tuned into the wild-card round to watch my Houston Texans take on the Bills and it was… wild.  Allen had flashes of brilliance in the game:  He scored on a 42 yard TD run and caught at 16 yard TD pass.  But he immediately followed it up with two fumbles on plays where he was just trying to do too much, and threw four ill-advised passes that should have resulted in interceptions.

And then that woefully, ill-advised lateral.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4HCUOl2WOI Yeesh. 

Anyway, the talent was clearly there, but it seemed difficult to imagine Allen being able to develop much further with such a reckless approach to a playoff game. 

Fast forward a full year, and Josh Allen is firmly among the best players in the NFL.  Allen led Buffalo to a 13-3 record this year and won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 (?!?).  Those flashes of brilliance that I mentioned above, have become steady and sustained. 

Want to know the list of players who have ever thrown for 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns, and ran for five more touchdowns? 

  • Josh Allen
  • That’s the whole list

Josh Allen has proven everyone wrong and the Bills are here. 

Can the Indianapolis Colts defense manage to slow him down?  The Colts had one of the best defenses in the league, but over the last several weeks of the season Indy has allowed the second most passing yards per game in the league. 

On the offensive end, the Colts will need to control the tempo through their rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and Phillip Rivers will need to play mistake-free.  If Indy can get ahead early, limit mistakes, control the clock, and keep Allen on the sideline for long stretches, they will have a chance. 

I’m picking the Buffalo Bills by 2+ scores.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

The Rams boasts one of the best defenses in the league but they lost starting quarterback Jared Goff to a broken thumb against Seattle a couple of weeks ago.  As I write this, his availability to play is unknown.  John Wolford will likely be the man for LA.  Wolford will present Seattle with some different looks, particularly with his ability to run the ball, but don’t expect Wolford to be asked to do too much.  LA will prefer to rely on their ferocious defense.  The Rams will want to keep the score low, and hope that Wolford can produce enough points to survive and advance. 

In both meetings between these teams this year, Seattle was held to 20 points or less and in their first meeting (an LA victory) the Seahawks had three turnovers. 

I expect this to be the closest game of Saturday’s slate and whichever team makes THE mistake in crunch time will lose.  The LA defense is great, but if Wolford plays any less than perfect, the game should be there for Seattle to take. 

I’m picking Seattle by a field goal. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team

Tom Brady has a history against teams with elite defensive lines (see 2007, 2011 Giants and 2009 Ravens).  That should probably make Bucs fans fairly nervous.  The formula to combat Brady has always been there.  Pressure him quickly and consistently throughout the game with your D-line and minimal blitzing and you can rattle him.  It’s easier said than done, but Washington may be up to the task. 

Pressuring and controlling Brady is imperative for Washington because, lets face it, they’re a 7-9 football team with an elite defense but a bad offense.  The Bucs may be shorthanded with the Mike Evans hyperextending his knee in the final game of the season, but it’s difficult to imagine Washington being able to generate enough points to come away with the win. 

The Washington defense has the second highest quarterback pressure rate this year behind only the Steelers, so whether or not they can force Brady out of his game will be the number one thing to watch. 

I’m picking Tampa Bay by 10 points.   

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Revenge game!! 

Last season, Baltimore entered a divisional round matchup against the Titans with a 14-2 record, the league MVP, and the label of Super Bowl favorites.  They promptly turned the ball over on their first two possessions and Tennessee game-planned them out of the building from there. 

This will be a game of rushing yards.  Baltimore ranks first in the league in rushing with Lamar Jackson becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to record back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons.  Tennessee is second in the league in rushing with Derrick Henry recording a 2,000 yard rushing yards season for only the eighth time in NFL history. 

Oh, and both teams have questionable defenses at best.

This game will likely be decided by which team can stay on the field and control the game.  Tennessee is one of the worst teams in the NFL in getting pressure on the quarterback and facing Lamar Jackson?  That will be a problem.  I expect the Ravens to come up with a few more stops than Tennessee, and this year, Jackson will make the plays that matter.

I’m picking Ravens by 10 points.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

Look, the most interesting thing about this game is that it’s going to be streaming on Nickelodeon. 

Chicago has a head coach (Matt Nagy) that will likely be coaching for his job and the starting quarterback (Mitch Trubisky) that will likely be playing for HIS job. 

Let me break this down for you:  the Saints are a good football team; the Bears are a bad football team.

If Alvin Kamara is able to play on Sunday after being out on the COVID-19 list, the gap will only widen. 

I’m picking the Saints by multiple scores, regardless.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This could be a great finish to the wild-card slate, but there are some things already working against it.  Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski and multiple assistants will miss the game on the COVID-19 list.  Stefanski has been the main play caller all year so Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be calling plays tomorrow for the very first time this season.  Cleveland will also be without several players including Pro Bowler Joel Bitonio from the offensive line. 

Obviously, Pittsburgh ended up being not quite as good as that 11-0 start may have suggested, but they have turned things around after a slump and are playing pretty good football right now. 

With things stacked against them, I expect Baker Mayfield to come out overly aggressive in this game and make some mistakes.  I think that Cleveland has the pieces in place to have a bright future so they’ll be back, but it may be a rough playoff exit this year. 

I’m picking Pittsburgh by 10 points.