Super Bowl LV is tomorrow. For the last two weeks I’ve been trying to put into perspective the magnitude of this matchup. This is the best I could come up with:
Picture it:
June 7, 2007.
Michael Jordan has come out of retirement for the third time and signed with the Phoenix Suns. At 43 years old, Jordan switches conferences and teams up with Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, and Amar’e Stoudemire in an effort to take a talented team to the next level and make one last Finals run.
In the Playoffs, Jordan leads the Suns past Lakers and league scoring champion Kobe Bryant. In the second round, the Suns are able to hold off their rival the San Antonio Spurs in a grueling 7-game series where Jordan’s experience, leadership, and clutch heroics put them over the top. The talented but inexperienced Utah Jazz had no chance at stopping Phoenix in the Western Conference Finals.
Now, all that stands between 43 year old Jordan and a seventh championship is a scrappy team led by perhaps the most talented prospect that has ever walking into a basketball gym, LeBron James.
At this point, Michael Jordan has achieved unanimous approval as the Greatest Of All Time. No matter the outcome of Finals, nothing can change Jordan’s legacy. But if anyone has any chance to challenge the status of the GOAT, we all know that it’s LeBron James. James has dragged his team to the NBA Finals in only his 4th year in the league. With an unprecedented combination of size, athleticism, skill, and IQ, as long as LeBron stays healthy, in 15 more years we will talking about James entering the same stratosphere as Jordan.
The ’06-’07 Finals will be a clash of The Past vs The Future. Is LeBron James ready to take the torch and issue a new dynasty of the NBA? Or will Michael Jordan do the unthinkable, winning a seventh championship at 43 years old and add to an already unassailable legacy?
*cue the NBA on ABC theme music*
Obviously, the scenario above is outrageous. But is it any more outrageous than what we’re set to watch in tomorrow’s Super Bowl??
Tom Brady is the GOAT. He is 43 (?!?) years old. He switched conferences to a take a talented team to the next level and bring his championship total to seven. In the playoffs he took down the only other quarterback who is as statistically accomplished as himself (Drew Brees) and the presumptive league MVP (Aaron Rodgers).
He will now matchup against Patrick Mahomes for the Super Bowl. Mahomes is the most talented quarterback that we’ve ever seen and in his 4th year in the league is trying to lead his team to back-to-back Super Bowl victories. It’s generally agreed that Mahomes is the only quarterback who (in 15 years if he stays healthy) could possibly enter into the Tom Brady stratosphere one day. The Past is set to meet The Future. A new dynasty will be born, or an already unassailable legacy will be fortified even further.
Sports fans: Don’t take this game for granted and enjoy the moment. We’ll probably never see a matchup like this again.
The Case For Kansas City
I said it in my earlier in my previous playoff columns: the tried and true method of beating a Brady-led team in the playoffs is to pressure him with the defensive line from Kickoff to the final buzzer.
The Kansas City defense ranked second in the league this year generating quarterback pressure on 35.8% of opposing QB dropbacks. Tom Brady ranks 27th in Quarterback Rating when he’s been under pressure this year (as opposed to being ranked 5th in QBR when the pocket is clean). Another notable stat for KC is that defensive tackle Chris Jones ranked second in pass rush win rate this season. It is imperative that KC’s pass rush is generated by the interior line rather than edge rushers or blitzers. Keep Tom Brady from stepping into his throws and throwing quick passes that allow him to dink and dunk down the field and you’ll give yourself a chance.
In case you weren’t aware, KC Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was the Defensive Coordinator for the New York Giants in 2007 when they took down Brady’s historic offense in Super Bowl XLII. No one knows the formula for beating Brady in the playoffs better than Spagnuolo and you can bet has been preaching interior pressure to his defensive line and has been disguising coverages for two weeks.
The Case For Tampa Bay
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense is so talented and versatile that the margin for error for the Tampa Bay defense is much thinner. Tampa Bay needs to pressure Mahomes as well, but in a different way. The Bucs edge rushers Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett will be keys in this game. It’s one thing to pressure Mahomes, but if he is allowed to escape the pocket, you’re cooked. It is vital that Tampa Bay keep Mahomes contained don’t allow him to extend plays with his legs.
The Kansas City offensive line has been banged up and they just lost left tackle Eric Fisher to an achilles injury in the AFC Title game. This could turn into a major story if Tampa Bay is able to consistently break down the Chiefs patchwork O-line.
The next conundrum for Tampa Bay is how to defend Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. When these teams met earlier in the year, Hill did this:
Tampa Bay adjusted and began playing three defensive backs deep to prevent Hill from getting behind them. The result was Travis Kelce running rampant underneath as he racked up seven receptions and 68 yards over the remainder of the game.
No team has figured out how to cover this combo yet. You can take away one or the other, but it’s nearly impossible to take away both.
If you’re Bucs Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowels, you just have to pick the correct poison here and pray that Tom Brady can keep pace.
My Picks
Kansas City is the better team. They have the better weapons and depth. Patrick Mahomes is the better quarterback today. The Chiefs are an inevitable force.
But Tom Brady…
I’ve watched Brady accomplish the impossible since I was 11 years old. I’m 30 years old now, and I’m still watching Tom Brady accomplish the impossible. It feels absurd, if not blasphemous, to pick against Tom Brady no matter the situation or opponent. Brady has a chance to achieve an unprecedented amount of greatness with a win tomorrow and nobody is more aware of that than he is.
I predict a slow start as both quarterbacks feel out the fresh wrinkles that Bowles and Spagnuolo have planned but I expect the offenses to crank up as the game goes on. Kansas City will make ONE more mistake than Tampa Bay in the fourth quarter and Tom Brady will lead a drive for a game winning field goal in the final minutes. Tampa Bay wins 37-34, Tom Brady throws for 300+ yards and 4 touchdowns earning Super Bowl MVP.
Either that, or KC wins in a blowout and a new dynasty begins.
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